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A note on the theory of fast money flow dynamics

机译:关于快钱流动力学理论的一点注记

摘要

The gauge theory of arbitrage was introduced by Ilinski in[arXiv:hep-th/9710148] and applied to fast money flows in[arXiv:cond-mat/9902044]. The theory of fast money flow dynamics attempts tomodel the evolution of currency exchange rates and stock prices on short, e.g.\intra-day, time scales. It has been used to explain some of the heuristictrading rules, known as technical analysis, that are used by professionaltraders in the equity and foreign exchange markets. A critique of some of theunderlying assumptions of the gauge theory of arbitrage was presented bySornette in [arXiv:cond-mat/9804045]. In this paper, we present a critique ofthe theory of fast money flow dynamics, which was not examined by Sornette. Wedemonstrate that the choice of the input parameters used in[arXiv:cond-mat/9902044] results in sinusoidal oscillations of the exchangerate, in conflict with the results presented in [arXiv:cond-mat/9902044]. Wealso find that the dynamics predicted by the theory are generally unstable inmost realistic situations, with the exchange rate tending to zero or infinityexponentially.
机译:Ilinski在[arXiv:hep-th / 9710148]中引入了套利的计量理论,并将其应用于[arXiv:cond-mat / 9902044]中的快速资金流动。快速资金流动力学的理论试图在短期(例如日内)时间尺度上模拟货币汇率和股票价格的演变。它已用于解释一些启发式交易规则,称为技术分析,这些规则由股票和外汇市场中的专业交易员使用。 Sornette在[arXiv:cond-mat / 9804045]中提出了对套利量表理论的一些基本假设的批评。在本文中,我们提出了对快速资金流动动力学理论的批评,但Sornette并未对此进行研究。希望证明[arXiv:cond-mat / 9902044]中使用的输入参数的选择会导致汇率的正弦振荡,这与[arXiv:cond-mat / 9902044]中显示的结果相矛盾。我们还发现,理论预测的动力学在大多数现实情况下通常都是不稳定的,汇率趋于零或无穷大。

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